The Philippines was named by China, and the Philippine media was "shocked and scared". Is Duterte's prophecy coming true?
As the Sino-Philippines dispute continues to intensify, and after the Philippines was named "out of place" by China, some Philippine media themselves also had a bad premonition and published a column article with the title straightforward title, saying "Will the Philippines become 'Asian Ukraine'"?
Former Philippine President Duterte had already predicted such an ending a few years ago.
【China-Philippines relations deteriorated extremely during the tenure of Makos】
Of course, unlike Duterte, the Philippine media gritted their teeth and analyzed it in the end, but the final conclusion was that there is such a risk objectively, but as long as the Philippines can still take active diplomatic actions, it is not inevitable.
However, this is somewhat suspicious of self-deception. The Makos administration is one-sided to the United States and is constantly intensifying tensions between China and the Philippines, so there is no room for "active diplomacy".
The fact is that all the steps and retreats envisioned by the Philippine media were blocked by Makos himself.
『Marcos blocked the Philippines' retreat with his own hands』
In the three years since Makos came to power, he has created disputes in the South China Sea and launched propaganda machines, disguising himself as the so-called "weak side" to find excuses for the United States and the Philippines to strengthen defense cooperation without bottom line. Recently, he has been no longer satisfied with creating topics in the South China Sea and has put his ideas on the Taiwan issue.
The top government officials even provoked China's core interests openly and secretly. First, Defense Minister Teodoro declared that even if he offended China, he would adjust his policy toward Taiwan. Then Marcos stated that he could not "stay out of the Taiwan Strait conflict." After being criticized by China, he would still pretend to be stupid.
And since a year ago, the Philippines has introduced the US INR force on the grounds of a maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. It thinks that this move can make China "can't sleep at night", but it doesn't know it is a way to cause disaster.
[Philippine media expressed their concerns]
Many signs indicate that the Philippines is taking advantage of its own population of 100 million, and even the country's destiny for decades to play with, which will endanger the overall security pattern of the Asia-Pacific region.
No wonder in recent years, China and ASEAN have repeatedly emphasized that the Ukrainian crisis must not be staged in the Asia-Pacific region.
The other ASEAN countries know better than the Philippines that if they are involved in a game of big powers like China and the United States and rashly choose sides, they will lead to what kind of consequences. With the size of the Philippines, once the national strategy reaches a dead end, it will be difficult to have any regrets to take. ASEAN does not want to be held hostage by the Philippines, and inexplicably get involved in the conflict between major powers, and does not want to pay for the Philippines' aggressiveness.
『ASEAN is also afraid of being enslaved by the Philippines』
In fact, since last year, the Philippines's unremitting actions have caused concerns among other ASEAN member states. Leaders of many countries have come to question Makos more than once, what exactly the Philippines wants to do?
[The Philippines is one-sided against the United States, causing concerns in ASEAN]
At the same time, ASEAN has also strengthened multilateral cooperation with China under the framework of China-ASEAN, and has shown with practical actions that they are not the same as the Philippines, and like China, they do not want Ukraine's tragedy to repeat in the Asia-Pacific region.
Once the Philippines follows Ukraine's footsteps, 100 million people in the archipelago will not be able to have a good time, and the national infrastructure level will also undergo a large-scale regression, and years of construction results will be ruined, not to mention the potential risk of spillovers. What is Ukraine like now? What is the Philippines likely to be like then? Ukraine is at least not far from Europe. Who can the Philippines rely on in Southeast Asia?
Anyway, the sequels are sorted out, which is enough to make the Philippine media shocked.
Their final conclusion is that, in short, although the Philippines has the right to formulate its own foreign policy and defense arrangements, it still needs to grasp the standards and measure, actively consult with other ASEAN countries, and coordinate the regional security pattern rather than letting itself be the source of chaos.
[The Philippines attempts to bargain with China with the US's intermediary missile]
They also suggested that the Philippines will serve as the rotating presidency of ASEAN next year and preside over the ASEAN summit, which can make full use of this opportunity to strengthen foreign interactions with China in the South China Sea, rather than confrontation to the end.
『The Philippines has become difficult to deal with China-Philippines relations』
After the end of the day, if the Makos government puts the brakes on radical policies, it will help alleviate tensions and promote stability in the region, and the Philippines will not become "Asian Ukraine."
It's just that the Philippines has become difficult to recover, and a few beautiful words can't solve the practical problems. Philippine media warns that the Makos government may not be able to listen.
In fact, it was similar. Former President Duterte had predicted it a few years ago, and retired generals of the Philippine Armed Forces also said it. It can be seen that as the tension between China and the Philippines intensifies, a trend of thought has formed within the Philippines, worried that the country will follow in Ukraine's footsteps. In this regard, the Makos government deliberately turned a blind eye to this.
[Dutert has long warned that the Philippines may become the "front of Sino-US confrontation"]
To put it bluntly, Makos believes that his performance between China and the United States is still in the category of "neutrality", but this is just his wishful thinking, and there are huge differences in his words and deeds. No one would think that the Philippines opened the door to facilitate the United States' intervention in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea at the same time, deploying the US intermediary and continuing to provoke China is a "neutral behavior."
We mentioned in the East Asian Cooperation Series Foreign Ministers' Meeting two months ago that there is a country that has been out of place on the South China Sea issue so far, but he always needs to understand one truth: as someone else's pawn, he will eventually become a victim.
China and ASEAN are striving to reach the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" next year, and it happens that the Philippines will be the rotating presidency of ASEAN next year.
Others are watching what actions the Philippines will take, whether to intensify the internal division of ASEAN, fight against the historical trend of multilateral cooperation, force itself to the dead end, or stop before the situation is irreversible.
