Original Jiuqiu Xiaomei Jiuzhou Business Observation
September 8, 2025
In the wave of deep adjustment of the liquor industry, Gujing Gongjiu, which once had a glorious popularity with the "year raw pulp", is in an unprecedented growth dilemma. As Chairman Liang Jinhui's 2026 retirement node approaches, his 30 billion revenue target has changed from the "tip-on-tip-to-reach" to the current "mirror". The brand and channel flaws exposed by this wine company have cast a heavy shadow on its future development.
Retracing the 2025 Gujing Gongjiu shareholders' meeting, when Liang Jinhui mentioned the retirement plan, he regarded leading the company to exceed 30 billion revenue as his core wish before retirement. At that time, Gujing Gongjiu established a clear growth path: it impacted 24.45 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, and could cross the 30 billion threshold by another 20% in 2025. However, the cold wave of industry adjustment completely disrupted this rhythm. In 2024, Gujing Gongjiu ushered in the first annual target in the past four years. Even though its performance is still high in the industry, the fatigue of growth can no longer be concealed.
The performance data for 2025 is more like a blunt knife, breaking the last hope of the 30 billion target. The growth rate of revenue and net profit in the first quarter fell below 15%, falling to 10.38% and 12.84%; the performance in the first half of the year was even worse, with revenue of 13.88 billion yuan only slightly increasing by 0.54%, and the growth rate of net profit of 3.662 billion yuan also narrowed to 2.49%, which is a dazzling contrast with the high growth rate of over 20% in the same period in 2024. Behind this "double increase", there is a more dangerous signal: the sales of each product line have achieved an increase of more than 10%, and the sales of vintage raw slurry, Gujing Gongjiu and Huanghelou series increased by 10.80%, 9.26%, and 12.11% year-on-year respectively, but the revenue has not increased simultaneously, and the Gujing Gongjiu series even showed a decline of 4.39%. It is not difficult for anyone with discerning eyes to see that this "double increase" report card is supported by "price for volume". This model of sacrificing profit for scale is obviously difficult to sustain.
Data on inventory and contractual liabilities further uncover the sales dilemma of Gujing Gongjiu. At the end of 2024, its inventory exceeded 9 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 9.264 billion yuan, and hit a new high of 9.404 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. Behind the continued rising inventory is the serious slowdown in market sales. More importantly, the contract liabilities, which are regarded as the "performance reservoir" of wine companies, plummeted by 2043% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Although it eased slightly in the first half of the year, it still fell by 35.63% to 1.428 billion yuan. Dealers' enthusiasm for getting goods has plummeted, terminal consumption demand is weak, Gujing Gongjiu's sales link is gradually under pressure, and the former growth engine has stalled.
After exploring the growth dilemma of Gujing Gongjiu, the two major "hard flaws" have already laid hidden dangers, but they have exploded in the downward period of the industry. The first thing to be affected is the shortcomings of brand power and product power. The core product vintage raw pulp has been deeply involved in the "vintage wine" controversy. Not only have they been questioned and sued by peers, but the relevant disputes have not yet been settled. At the moment when competitors are accelerating their layout of the "real vintage" track, Yanghe focuses on "real vintage, real softness", Zhenjiu launches the "2020 Real vintage" strategic single product, Gujing Gongjiu's "year" concept advantages are constantly diluted, and brand trust is facing unprecedented challenges.
What is more worthy of attention is that the "high marketing investment" model that relies heavily on the annual raw pulp is facing the embarrassment of a decline in marginal effect. In 2024, the sales expenses of Gujing Gongjiu reached 6.182 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of comprehensive promotion fees and advertising fees reached 22.7% and 18.87% respectively, both far exceeding the revenue growth rate during the same period. Huge marketing investment has not been transformed into a continuous growth momentum, but instead has caused marketing efficiency to become imbalanced - consumers' freshness of the concept of "year" fades, and channels' dependence on high-value promotions has increased. This development path of "focusing on marketing and neglecting quality" is obviously not in line with the long-term development logic of the liquor industry.
If the brand dispute is "internal injury", then the stagnation of national layout is the "external trouble" of Gujing Gongjiu. Since 2016, Gujing Gongjiu has been named CCTV Spring Festival Gala for 10 consecutive years, trying to gain national popularity. However, judging from actual performance, this "nationalization movement" that lasted for ten years is more like a "one-man show". In the first half of 2025, the revenue share of its central China region was still as high as 90%, an increase of only 3.6%, while the revenue in North China and South China regions fell by nearly 30% and 5.84% respectively, and other regions failed to achieve breakthroughs. This is in a huge contrast with the company's claim that "nationalization coverage rate is 70%. The so-called "nationalization" is just a "regionalization" extension limited to the Anhui base. At a time when the industry is competing with shrinking volume, it has doubled its difficulty in breaking regional barriers and expanding outward.
The deep distribution system was once the "moat" for Gujing Gongjiu to stabilize the Anhui market. It provided it with a certain buffer space during the downward period of the industry, but it also became a "shackle" that restricted nationalization. Excessive reliance on local channels has made it difficult for it to adapt to the consumption habits and channel ecology of different regions when it expands its foreign market; and in the base market, with the decline of leading liquor companies such as Moutai and Wuliangye, and the fierce competition among regional liquor companies, Gujing Gongjiu's local advantages are gradually eroding, and the situation of being attacked from both sides is becoming more and more obvious.
Now, there is only more than a year left before Liang Jinhui retires in 2026, and the revenue target of 30 billion has changed from "promising to achieve" to "almost impossible". This is not only a regret of his personal career, but also reflects the deep-seated problems of Gujing Gongjiu's development strategy. At the critical juncture of performance pressure and strategic stagnation, the smooth transition of management has become another test for Gujing Gongjiu - if there is turmoil during the retirement transition period, or if the new management fails to adjust its strategy in a timely manner, the wine company may fall into a deeper dilemma.
For Gujing Gongjiu, the most urgent thing at the moment is not to worry about unfinished revenue goals, but to face up to the core shortcomings of the brand and channel. Reduce gimmick-like marketing slogans, return to product quality itself, clarify the standards and positioning of "vamp wine"; abandon the national idea of "focusing on scale and neglecting quality", focus on core areas to deepen and work, and explore channel models that are adapted to foreign markets. Only in this way can we find a new growth fulcrum in the deep adjustment of the liquor industry. Otherwise, even if the transfer of the leader is stable, it will be difficult to change its destiny of weak growth.
The competition in the liquor industry has long shifted from "scale competition" to "competition between quality and brand". If Gujing Gongjiu cannot break the deadlock in time, not only will the goal of 30 billion yuan be completely lost, but its position in the industry may also be surpassed by subsequent players. This test of survival and development is already placed in front of Gujing Gongjiu, and there is not much time left for this company.
