Will Xin points gold ׀ US dollar back to break the edge, gold price remains strong, stagnation, silver price relay strengthens

The rate cut window approaches the US dollar and then returns to the edge of breaking

Gold priceSilver price relay strengthens

September 12, 2025 Weierxin Investment Consulting Research Center

(Text) Chief Analyst Yang Yijun

Source: Yang Yijun Gold and Financial Investment

On Thursday, the international spot gold price opened at $3641.99, with a high of $3648.92 and a low of $3613.79, closing at $3634.21, down $5.77,Decreased 0.16%, with an amplitude of 0.97%, The daily K-line oscillates and returns to the soft small negative line.

The US dollar index opened at 97.84 points on Thursday, with a high of 98.08 points and a low of 97.46 points, closing at 97.53 points, down 310 points,Declined 0.31%, with an amplitude of 0.63%, The daily K-line fluctuates downward with a narrow range of small negative lines.

On Thursday, the Wellxin precious gold index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7357.77 points, with a high of 7470.63 points and a low of 7332.84 points, closing at 7428.18 points, up 69.14 points,At 0.94%, an amplitude of 1.87%, The daily K-line fluctuated and rose slightly positive line, closing to a new historical high.

International spot silver priceup 1.00%, closing at $41.56; Platinum price fell 0.88% closed at $1,378.90; palladium price rose 1.04% closed at $1,188.03.

The weak rebound of the US dollar index was once again effectively hindered by the monthly and quarterly bond resonance pressure level. As the Fed's interest rate cut approaches, the US dollar seems to be under increasing pressure to break down, and precious metals and base metals continue to strengthen across the board. Due to the strong performance of international spot gold prices in recent days, the US dollar index showed a short-term overbought stagflation signal during the softening operation on Thursday, but silver seemed to have taken over the lead and hit another 14-year high. In the Asian market on Friday, international spot silver prices continued to rise strongly above $42, reaching the "at least target position" we analyzed and judged a few months ago.

Another example, the information diagram of gold, silver and US dollar markets:

Before the US August CPI data was released at 20:30 Beijing time, the US dollar fluctuated slightly and strengthened, and the prices of gold and silver correspondingly returned to soft. It is not difficult to see from the market information that the pressure on gold prices is stronger than that of silver prices, especially the last Asian market and the early European market. After the US CPI data was released, the US dollar reversed and the price of gold and silver jumped. However, as the US dollar index fluctuated downward, the gold market continued to show a signal of strengthening market selling pressure similar to that of the European morning market, while the silver price became more and more stable and hit a new high in 14 years, and seemed to have taken over the flagpole leading the precious metals from gold.

Data news, the US August PPI annual rate announced on Wednesday fell more than expected, but the author believes that there is no need to pay too much attention to the data signals of this issue:

The market expects the US PPI annual rate to remain flat in August at 3.3% in July, with the actual data falling sharply to 2.6% beyond expectations. The core PPI annual rate information also fell beyond expectations. The data is completely inconsistent with the U.S. non-manufacturing price payment index released at the beginning of the month and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index for the next year in July, and is inconsistent with the U.S. CPI information released on Thursday. The "abnormal" of the US PPI data in August also appeared in June two months ago.

For example, the US August CPI info diagram released on Thursday:

Although the US PPI data in August caused the market to fall sharply, the annual rates of CPI and core CPI are in line with market expectations. The annual CPI rate further rose from 2.7% in July to 2.9%, while the annual core CPI rate remained stable at 3.1%. Consumer prices generally maintained a moderate recovery trend, and given the poor employment information released in the United States in August released at the beginning of the month, it means there is no suspense about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week, and the difference is only a 25-point or 50-point rate cut. Although the downward trend of the employment market is obvious, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing data released at the beginning of the month were better than expected, especially the non-manufacturing industry once again showed an expansion state. Given that the US stock market continued to hit a record high, it is unlikely that a 50-point interest rate cut will be cut.

For example, the monthly K-line of international spot gold prices, as well as the annual rate and interest rate information diagram of the US price index :

After the August gold price is fixed in bald head and barefoot long positive line, it further forms a "immortal guide" bullish K-line combination with the April, May, June and July gold price K-line, which means that the September gold price will inevitably be bullish. The current gold price is rising sharply in September, in line with the K-line pattern guidelines. The international spot silver price in July and August is a more standard "Immortal Guide" K-line combination, so the silver price in September also performed strongly, hitting new highs in more than ten years, and reached the upward target level that the author analyzed to Keshang a few months ago, at $42. The Federal Reserve will inevitably open a window for the interest rate cut cycle next week, and the US price index is at the bottom of the cycle, and the medium-cycle will inevitably rise, which will continue to be beneficial to gold and silver, as well as base metals and crude oil.

The basic metals and crude oil market performance has been relatively weak in recent stages. The author judges that this is as pragmatic as the market "not seeing rabbits and not showing off eagles". Against the backdrop of economic outlook expectations, the fed's interest rate cut will not be put into practice, and the eagle in the commodity market will not be long. Perhaps the Fed's announcement of interest rate cuts next week will mean that it will sound the call to go long on the commodity market. Gold and silver are ahead because of the need to hedge risks!

The enlarged position of the figure in the middle is shown, the phenomenon of a sharp decline in the US PPI annual rate in August exceeding expectations occurred in the previous six months. In June, the annual rate of the US PPI also fell sharply against the CPI annual rate, and then in July, the annual rate of the PPI annual rate showed the strongest "jump" in several years, so there is no need to pay attention to the negative guidance of the sharp decline in the PPI annual rate in August for the commodity market.

Another example, the daily infographic of the US dollar index:

On the main chart, information on the distribution of the cost wave of the US dollar index. After the US dollar index fell to 96.36 points in early July, the weekly KD and RSI showed a cyclical oversold bottom divergence signal similar to the B position in 2021, indicating that the US dollar may bottom out in the medium term. Moreover, the current US dollar pattern trend and cost wave distribution information in Area A are also similar to B in 2021: After the mid-term downward trend, the submarine market power of the cost wave will be tested. If it stabilizes effectively, it may bottom out in the medium term. If support fails, it may open the window of the macro depreciation cycle. At present, the rebound of the US dollar in Area A is obviously not as strong as it is after the bottom of 89.2058 points in 2021. The biggest difference between these two fundamentals is that at the current A position, the US dollar interest rate is at the top of the cycle, and there will be great pressure for the medium-cycle interest rate cuts. In 2021, the US dollar interest rate is at the bottom of the cycle near the zero position. As inflation rises strongly, there will be greater pressure to raise interest rates in the medium cycle to suppress inflation. Therefore, the US dollar pattern trend and cost wave distribution, combined with the observation and thinking of the US dollar interest rate cycle, the medium-cycle US dollar breaks down, and the possibility of opening the window of the macro depreciation cycle is relatively high.

The second half of the graph pattern trend, in September 2022, the US dollar cycle peaked at 114.78 points, and has generally operated in the H1H2 macro bear market channel. In this macro bear market channel, the US dollar has emerged from the "flap mouth" pattern in the L1L2 area shown in the figure from 2023 to 2025, and finally chose to break down the flap mouth. After such a large-level trumpet is broken down, the possibility of a medium- and long-term trend downward is relatively high. The rebound of the US dollar after bottoming out at 96.36 points in July can be regarded as an accurate pullback after the trumpet breaks. The US dollar rebounds to 100.25 points, and then falls quickly after pulling back below the L1 trumpet, which is in line with the guidance of technical form theory.

In addition, the resistance line determined by the two points 89.2058 and 110.15 is the derivative usage of the resistance line defined by the author, and it has been frequently seen with miraculous results in technical analysis. From July to the present, the technical support precision effect of the 2/3 line of the resistance line on the US dollar. Over time, the 2/3 line has fully fulfilled its technical mission, or eventually formed effective support and became a slide or springboard to support the US dollar's medium-term upward trend. Or it can effectively "lose" after fulfilling the ultimate technical support, indicating that the US dollar will enter a new mid-cycle of depreciation. However, the H2 track line support is close to the support below, and this "new low" is not ruled out that the "new low" is the bottom divergence signal from the 96.36 point bottom and the 97.91 point bottom. Therefore, it is not without technical risks to chase the relevant market based on the information of the US dollar breaking down, or after the US dollar effectively breaks through the 2/3 line of the resistance line, it is not without technical risks. Only forward-looking, bold and bold in intervention in advance can reason and wisdom be reflected. Regarding this round of new upward trend of gold and silver, we have grasped the starting point of the upward cycle very accurately and timely, and have fully explained it through technical quantitative arguments that accurately reach the two decimal places. Of course, even if there are twists and turns in the short term or stage, the overall upward trend will inevitably continue. Therefore, when gold and silver prices fall, rational and calm intervention are the stable and reasonable options. For example, in the weekly news on September 6, we pointed out that gold and silver still adhere to the strategy of longing on lows this week. When the silver price falls back to around $40.50, investors with short positions can enter the market to go long. On Monday, the lowest price of silver fell just below $40.50, which once again constitutes a long opportunity. As for gold, we lock in positions that have been on the rise in recent months and we recommend that we continue to hold positions and wait for the rise.

Other news, Bridgewater founder Dalio warned that the growing debt burden in the United States is pushing its market to the brink of risk, and he advised investors to use gold as a hedge to resist potential systemic crises. Joyce Chang, head of global research at JPMorgan Chase, said the euro will continue to strengthen this year, boosted by European spending plans. This means that the possibility of the US dollar continuing to break the downward trend is relatively high.