Retail investor B: "The idea of investing in Laojiao and Moutai is slightly different. In the current industry adjustment, there are first of all two basic premises: First, is the liquor industry a life-and-death industry in the future? Is it the same as most industries without personality differences such as beer and milk. If you buy it, buy the leader? The second and third brothers will die? I think it is not, because all liquors with a certain scale and history have the following characteristics: 1. Regional characteristics. 2. Historical and cultural characteristics. 3. Brewing technology and formula characteristics. 4. Flavor and flavor characteristics. In addition, the market of liquor is large enough, the consumer group is widespread, and the demand is diversified, which is the fundamental reason for the low concentration of liquor in history."
This is an analysis of the business model.
Any industry should develop in the direction of concentration, but some industries will be slower and more regional.
I checked the data and found that the liquor industry is also concentrated in terms of revenue and profit. ——It’s just that it’s not as fast as some industries concentrate, and it’s difficult to form such absolute concentration.
1, regional characteristics. ——The support of local enterprises in various places involves tax payment.
2, historical and cultural characteristics. ——Involves marketing and communication costs, as well as consumer loyalty. (Think about it, if you drink the same wine as Li Shimin, you will definitely feel differently)
3, brewing process and formula characteristics.
4, fragrance and flavor characteristics. ——Involves the user's loyalty and taste migration difficulty, that is, users are not easily lost.
In order to adapt to this concentrated trend, we need to buy leading companies and industry leaders.
On the other hand, a common rule for the allocation of social resources is to allocate according to rankings, such as scientific research, study, work, and investment.
So, the last place is often prone to a life-and-death crisis.
But in the food industry, there has always been a preconceived phenomenon, that foods first have a great impact and even determine their subsequent taste preferences. Therefore, it shows a strong regionality.
For example, Buffett's Essay Candy - once he wants to develop into other states - has poor sales performance, but is loved by people in its original state.
On the other hand, liquor is an addictive commodity, and this addictiveness further consolidates this preconception, that is, it further strengthens the regional characteristics.
So, the top three companies basically do not have life or death problems. ——Especially companies with high-profit products such as liquor.
On the other hand, addictive things are also easy to defeat inflation in pricing. ——In order to achieve continuous growth in future cash flow in price increases.
Buffett: It is impossible to always think about how much money a company can sell it. The correct way of thinking about a company is, in the long run, can the company make more and more money? If the answer is yes, there is no need to ask any other questions.
Product price increase can defeat inflation and have high gross profit margins - such companies are in line with this problem of Buffett.
Of course, in this case - considering whether the target company has a life-and-death crisis and eliminating this possibility - before you can buy it. ——So, this also reflects the unspoken rules of sorting social resources according to security.
In terms of investment results - leading stocks (ranked first in the market position) - rose no worse than those in the same industry with small market value, and when they fell at the same time, they were even slower than those in the same industry.
So, it seems that it is better to buy leading companies in the same industry - although small-cap companies seem to have a larger daily increase, the decline is also greater, and overall, the time of staying at a high level - it is still the leading companies that have an absolute advantage.
In this case, from the perspective of industry concentration, we eliminate the fatal dangers of the company in our hands - this is a good angle - this is also a kind of danger to be prepared for in times of peace!
