Trump is vigorously urging and promoting American soybeans, but Chinese orders are completely cleared! 500,000 bean farmers across the United States are in despair. Has the United States really won this trade war?
American agriculture is facing an unprecedented crisis, and the source of this crisis is far away from the other end of the Pacific Ocean - Chinese buyers have not placed orders for a long time. According to Fortune magazine, Caleb Lagland, chairman of the American Soybean Association, recently made an emergency statement, describing the current situation as "extremely severe" - the southernmost soybeans have ushered in the harvest season, but the largest customer, China, has not signed an order so far.
[The President of the American Soybean Association said that "the situation is extremely serious"]
Lagran is not shy about it: "China has always bought a quarter of our soybeans. At this time in previous years, 8% to 9% of soybeans should be registered and sold to China, but now, what we are waiting for is zero."This unprecedented situation has caused an earthquake in the agricultural system across the United States.
You must know that September to January of the following year have always been the lifeblood of US soybean exports. Trump had previously personally clamored on social media, praising "the United States has the best farmers in the world", and shouting that China should increase US soybean imports to four times, claiming that this will help reduce the Sino-US trade deficit. He even promised confidently that as long as China places an order, the US will deliver soybeans with the fastest and best service.
But reality poured a basin of ice water. Trump's shouting did not call for orders, but instead ushered in a more bleak situation: soybean prices have plummeted by 40%, while costs and loan interest rates have continued to rise, and futures prices have even broken through the planting cost line, and 500,000 soybean farmers across the United States are in despair.
[Trump asks China to buy US soybeans in large quantities]
Agriculture is known as the "silent ballast" of the United States, contributing about $9.5 trillion annually, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the country's total economic output, and is associated with millions of employment. Soybean exports alone have supported 230,000 jobs. Now the chain is stuck, from rural shops, processing plants to port logistics, the entire industrial chain is shaking.
All this stems from the trade war without a winner. Since Trump's tariff stick swing, the global soybean pattern has been completely reconstructed - US soybeans have completely lost their competitiveness due to the overlapping tariffs and cannot compete with Brazil and other Southern Common Markets. China did not hesitate and turned around to embrace South America.
In July this year, China's soybean imports reached a historical peak, with more than 70% of them coming from Brazil. In March, Brazil's monthly output to China reached 15.7 million tons, breaking the record.
【Brazilian soybeans replace US market share】
This transition is not accidental. South America is no longer the same as before under the help of Chinese funds and infrastructure. Railways are completed, port upgrades, warehousing expansion, and logistics efficiency has been greatly improved. With faster transportation and more stable supply, Chinese buyers naturally tend to sign long-term agreements.
In addition, China's domestic feed industry currently has sufficient raw material reserves, soybean meal inventory is at a healthy level, and the operation of crushing companies is stable. There is no need to barely purchase US soybeans during high tariff periods. After all, the buyer is looking at cost-effectiveness, arrival stability and transaction costs, all of which are pushing orders to the south.
Virginia Houston, head of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, admitted sadly: "We have no price advantage at all, and there is no second Chinese market in the world."
Lagran has been constantly warning of the irreplaceability of Chinese orders since April this year. Last month, he even wrote a letter to Trump, bluntly saying that "every day delayed reaching an agreement, American soybean farmers are one step closer to collapse."
[The American farmer group is Trump's iron ticket warehouse]
What makes Washington feel more uncomfortable is that farmers are the most hard-core basic base of the Republican and MAGA camps. If this situation worsens, not only will the Republican Party face a backlash in the 2026 midterm elections, but Trump's remaining term may become a lame duck.
Not only soybeans, the scale of energy purchased by China from the United States is also falling sharply. Nikkei Asia previously pointed out that China's energy procurement scale from the United States was almost "zeroed", hitting the lowest in five years. On the contrary, Russia's oil and natural gas share in China continues to expand.
While whether these numbers mean permanently no longer purchasing remains to be seen, what is certain at this stage is that China is obviously reducing its dependence on US energy and agricultural products.
[U.S. energy exports to China are almost "zeroed"]
From energy to soybeans, China is interpreting what "strategic determination" is with practical actions:Follow the diversification of supply, get rid of dependence on the United States, and hold the valve of resource security firmly in its own hands.
After all, business is business. China is no longer someone's dumping market, but a big customer who is sober, decisive and has the right to choose. We must cooperate and show sincerity; threaten and increase tariffs? That will eventually only exchange for empty ports and silent order bars.
From soybeans to energy, this battle is called "the largest trade desensitization in history", without emotional confrontation, no noisy diplomatic rhetoric, only a calm and resolute supply chain reconstruction. All this not only reshapes China-US economic and trade relations, but also rewrites the global agricultural products and energy trade pattern.
