I wonder if you have noticed it recently. In August this year, the State Council held its ninth plenary meeting, which once again mentioned that there is a need to "take effective measures to consolidate the trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing the real estate market."
The latest tone of the high-level management in the real estate market has attracted widespread attention. Literally speaking, this sentence is obviously more determined and urgent than the "greater push" proposed in June. I feel that the top management really can't sit still this time.
To put it bluntly, this situation is not difficult to understand. The current real estate market data is indeed not very good-looking.
Take July this year as an example. Data shows that the sales area and sales in July were 57 million square meters and 0.53 trillion yuan, respectively, down 45.8% and 47.5% month-on-month.
Sales area and sales decreased by 7.8% and 14.1% respectively compared with the same period last year.
Sales continued to shrink, and the sales area and sales of new homes in July have hit new lows in the same period in the past 10 years.
It can be seen that home buyers are no longer in a strong sense of waiting and seeing, and many people even don’t even look at it.
And from the data reported by the market, it is not only the buyers who have no confidence, but now even the developers are timid.
According to data, from January to July this year, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%; of which, residential investment was 4120.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%, and the decline has been expanding compared with the past few months.
We searched the relevant data online and found that this decline method has been the strongest in the past 28 months.
I dare not invest in the front, and no one buys a house later - both ends of the market are shrinking. Can you say this not make people anxious?
So you said that if you don’t “put a strong medicine” at this time, will the real estate market really “stay flat”?
The key is that the current houses are not just about being unable to sell, but more troublesome, the current inventory is still high.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2023, the area for sale of commercial housing nationwide will be 670 million square meters. Originally, the inventory will be increased in the past two years, but what is the result?
By the end of July this year, the area of commercial housing for sale increased to 760 million square meters. Instead, the inventory is getting more and more. Do you think it’s magical?
Of course, it is not to say that there is no good news at all. At least after the policy is taken, the inventory growth rate has slowed down and has not risen sharply as before. But it is still far from "stop the decline and stabilize".
In other words, from the current data, whether it is sales, inventory or investment, analysis from all angles, more forceful policy support is urgently needed.
Moreover, with the arrival of the Golden September and Silver October, it is estimated that a new wave of loosening policies will be ushered in next, with the focus on destocking. For example, the national team will collect and save, lower loan interest rates, encourage improvement of demand, etc....
But we also need to give everyone a "vaccination" in advance. Even if there are any major positive effects, the goal is to "support" and not "pull". So don’t feel that a big rise is coming when you hear the loosening. The general principle of “housing for living, not for speculation” has never changed.
In fact, the attitude of the senior management is very clear: real estate is no longer regarded as a shortcut to stimulate the economy.
Its role has changed. Even if the market rebounds in the future, it will be slowly, structural, and different situations in different cities. It is impossible to rise generally as sharply as in the past,
However, now, whether the market can improve in the future is definitely not enough to rely on favorable factors. In the end, it depends on how the overall economy is, whether our people's income has improved and whether their confidence cannot be returned.
If the economy rises rapidly, everyone will have confidence in the future and feel that work is stable and their income is growing steadily, their willingness to consume will increase, and their enthusiasm for buying a house will gradually recover.
So, what impact does this round of loosening policy have on us ordinary people?
Suggestions:
If you have an old and dilapidated house in your hand, or you have always wanted to change a house, and you will be introduced with the benefit of the policy, it is a good time to get on the bus.
Although selling a house is not as easy as before, as long as the policy comes, the window may open briefly. Only by seizing the opportunity at this time can you operate smoothly.
But, it must be clear that the policy only helps the market stabilize, not push it to the forefront again.
The real recovery of the real estate market still depends on the real economic recovery and the return of everyone's confidence.
What do you think about this?
