Retail investor B: "I think that even if liquor really has brand concentration, it will only appear in alcoholic wine. In addition, taking Laojiao as an example, when liquor reached its peak of 8 million tons in 1996, Laojiao's sales were 960 million yuan. When liquor shrinks all the way to 3.11 million tons in 2004, Laojiao's sales reached 1.25 billion yuan. When liquor production returned to 8 million tons again in 2010, Laojiao's sales were already 5 billion yuan. The same is true for the development of other large wine companies. In other words, liquor companies with a certain scale and history do not have the problem of being forced to death by other companies as long as they are not seeking death on their own."
That is, in the process of concentration - liquor companies with a certain scale and history will not be concentrated and will not become victims of the process of concentration.
and, the target company,
1. In the process of concentration—it is still achieved growth. In the process of industry shrinking, revenue growth of 30% can still be achieved.
2. During the expansion process, it is expanding compared to other companies - products have doubled, but revenue has increased by four times.
In other words, in the long run, buying liquor companies like Luzhou Laoyao will not be fatal. Secondly, there is a high probability that there will be no risk of losing principal in the long run.
That is, in the process of long-term holding, fatal dangers must be eliminated, and secondly, the risk of losing money must be eliminated.
Duan Yongping: Any investment decision must consider one thing in advance, that is, will this investment fail be fatal, and I will not do all the losses.
If there is a fatal danger, you need to be rich for the second time.
Buffett: Rule 1: Never lose money. Rule 2: Never forget Rule 1.
The risk of losing money is eliminated—at most, the return is low.
In long-term shareholding, it is necessary to evaluate whether one can maintain one's independent position in the process of industrial concentration (mergers). It is necessary to evaluate whether income (profit) can be maintained in the process of industrial shrinkage.
1. If you cannot maintain your independent status - then you will be sold at a low price or go bankrupt. ——Your capital is likely to be wasted.
2. If the performance cannot be maintained during the process of industrial shrinkage. ——Then everything can happen, and in this case, it is also dangerous.
So,
Duan Yongping: Decide an acceptable price, and then buy to keep. For example, Apple, my personal opinion, this business can achieve annual earnings per share of 80-100 per share, and then it can maintain or continue to grow for at least a long time (such as 5 to 10 or more). Then the conclusion is that 300 yuan is very cheap, 400 yuan is very cheap, and 500 yuan is also very cheap. Is 600 yuan cheaper now? It seems to be cheap. However, if you can't find Apple's future profitability, it will be dizzy to buy at any price.
It is emphasized here that at the peak of profit, it can maintain at least 5 to 10 years or longer - this maintenance can maintain the target company's intrinsic value continuously - intrinsic value = current market value + subsequent annual profit.
As long as the profit can be maintained at the peak, then it will not be easy to lose the principal!
When the danger is eliminated, let’s re-defined the issue of profits.
Retail investor B: deposit a bank, buy a house, and invest in the stock market, these three channels. Anyway, the money exists in these three forms. I compare it in these three fields. If the financial management is better, the money will go to financial management. The financial management risks are greater. If there are good stocks in the stock market, it will be transferred to the stock market. When the house is 1 million yuan, the rent will reach 80,000 yuan a year. I may buy another house.
Then choose the way to get the big profits in the small, rather than greed - so, although in the 2015 bull market, he can still hold his own stocks.
It does not shake its investment decisions because of the obvious leading gains of other stocks. ——Acknowledge that some money is not capable of rising—This is a necessary condition for making money in the long run (the so-called long-term foundation).
