Foreword
A missile shattered the last touch of tacit understanding in the Middle East.
On the afternoon of September 9, 2025, Israeli fighter jets passed through Doha, the capital of Qatar at a low altitude. A three-story villa turned into ruins under the roar of ten missiles. It was not someone else who died, but the son of Hamas' negotiator and his office director. At that moment, the documents on the peace negotiation table had not been completed, and the missile landed first.
What's even more embarrassing is that more than 3,000 soldiers, a Qatar ally, were stationed in Doha, and even the air defense alarm did not sound. Qatar was furious, Türkiye blushed, but Iran, Venezuela and Russia were laughing quietly. Some people were beaten, some were watching the show, and some were taking advantage of the situation. This is not just an air strike, but also a reshuffle of the power structure.
Allies were bombed and became laughing stock
The most embarrassing thing about Qatar was bombed was not Qatar, but Turkey. As Qatar's "bodyguard", Turkey has a permanent military base in Doha, and thousands of soldiers are stationed there. When it comes to "brother countries", they really start to take action. Israel's missiles entered the city, and Turkey did not even show any shadow.
Where does this put Erdogan's face? He made a high-profile announcement that he would be the "backbone of the Islamic world", but now, his territory was smashed to the lid of the pot and he didn't even dare to say anything tough. Israel is not polite, and some scholars directly named it: "Qatar today, Turkey tomorrow." This sounds not only provocative, but also like labeling Turkey - you can't protect others, and don't expect to protect yourself.
This incident directly slapped Turkey's military credibility, but also its "leader dream" in the Middle East. Türkiye has tried to rebuild the influence of the Ottoman Empire in recent years and has taken many actions in the Middle East, but now all countries can see clearly: at critical moments, Türkiye is unreliable.
What's worse is that the economy is also suffering. Qatar is Turkey's money bag. Not only has it invested $23 billion, it also participated in the "Turkey Creek" natural gas pipeline project. Now that allies have been bombed and relations have been damaged, will Qatar tighten its money? Türkiye is afraid that this is true because its inflation rate is still at a high of 40%.
And Türkiye's current strategic space is also suppressed. Want to fight Israel? NAD will stop you first. Want to rely on Russia? The ruined Syrian slap has not been settled yet. In a dilemma, Turkey lost not only by face, but also at the poker table.
Three countries were quietly happy, some people took a breath, and some people got chips
As the situation is chaotic, there will always be someone who can get out of the gap. Although Israel's bombing of Qatar this time was a big deal, it brought the United States' attention back to the Middle East. Who is the happiest? Venezuela, Iran and Russia are just taking the opportunity to do their own business.
Let's talk about Venezuela first. Originally, the United States had already set up its stance, and eight warships and thousands of marines arrived on the coast of Venezuela and were ready to take action. If Israel explodes, the strategic focus of the United States will be instantly shifted.
Maduro smiled and said, "Shocks from the Sky". Taking advantage of the distraction of the United States, he immediately accelerated cooperation with Russia, Iran and China. Warships, missiles and drones are launched, and the trade volume of the Central Trade Commission has also surged to US$10 billion in 2024. After this wave of operations, the cost of the United States will double if it really fights Venezuela.
Iran is even more scheming. Israel's move this time was playing Hamas on the surface, but in fact it also relieved Iran's pressure. Iran took this opportunity to step up its development of its "swarm drone tactics", playing low-cost and high-efficiency cards.
What's even better is that this time it was Qatar, a Sunni country. Iran took advantage of the situation to raise the banner of "common security" and tried to reconstruct the Shiite and Sunni cooperation pattern in the Middle East. Türkiye lost its chain in Qatar, so Iran took the opportunity to take office, intending to package itself as a "safety guardian".
As for Russia, it is simply blooming in multiple lines. Once the United States is distracted, the Ukrainian battlefield will be easier. At the same time, Russia can also take advantage of the chaos to sell more air defense systems to the Middle East. For example, Türkiye's second batch of S-400s are ready.
Not to mention that it is still quietly planning in Latin America. It just signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Venezuela in April. The Middle East is in chaos and the West cannot take care of it. Russia's territory will be bigger and bigger.
The three countries each have their own plans, but one thing is common: Israel's bombing of Qatar gave them an opportunity to take advantage of. They didn't say anything harsh or say anything, they just quietly and steadily expand their influence in the gap.
The incident in the Middle East is not just the Middle East
This matter is not a private account of Israel and Hamas, nor is it a facial problem between Qatar and Turkey. The bigger problem is that the already fragile security architecture in the Middle East has been completely exacerbated by this explosion.
Qatar has always been the "middleman" of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the negotiating table has not yet been warm and shrapnel have flew in. Qatar said it would continue to mediate, but also admitted that "there are no talks in progress at the moment." Hamas is more likely to turn against each other. Israel's move is not only a slap in the face, but also a slap in the face, and it is the credibility of the four words "peace process".
Israel's actions have also made many countries frightened. Qatar is an important ally of the United States in the Middle East, with all bases, weapons and cooperation, but it will be a fight at any time. Other countries began to think: If even Qatar could not be kept, what about us? Saudi Arabia is already accelerating the deployment of the US "THAAD" system. Gulf countries may choose to join forces and even "temporary reconciliation" with Iran and Türkiye in order to provide additional guarantees.
As for the United States, they said condemnation, but they were 10 minutes late in their actions before notifying Qatar. This "only say but not do" attitude makes allies see clearly: relying on the United States, relying on the mouth, not relying on the hands, in the future, the weight of the United States' speech may be discounted.
What is most worthy of attention is that this incident started with a bad start. Israel directly attacked across borders under the banner of "anti-terrorism". If this becomes a routine, then anyone can find a reason to throw missiles at other people's homes in the future. Once the bottom line of international law is broken, the "unwritten rules" of the world order may be completely rewritten.
A air strike disrupted the overall situation and revealed the truth
Israeli bombed Qatar not only by blowing up a building, but also by rifts in the Middle East's power structure. Turkey lost trust in front of its allies, but old geopolitical players are silently increasing their investments, some are struggling to hold on, and some are quietly adjusting their chips.
The situation is chaotic and the situation has changed. In the future, the Middle East is no longer up to who can decide, but who can hold on to the end. The bursting point of the war is often not the moment the missile lands, but after it lands, whoever gains, loses power, and who changes his face. And this scorched earth in Qatar may be the starting point of the next major change.
References:
What is the purpose of the Israeli army's air strike against Qatar? Challenge the sovereignty of the mediators
2025-09-10 China.com
Israeli attacks on the "forbidden zone" Qatar, the Middle East may produce a "chilling effect" Israel attacks on the "forbidden zone" Qatar, and the Middle East may produce a "chilling effect"2025-09-10 Red Star News
