The end of the war may not bring peace, but a bigger war!

The "Russia-Ukraine War" fought vigorously and intermittently for more than three years. Although US President Trump entertained Putin at the Las Vegas Air Force Base with high standards, he still could not press the "pause button" of the war.

In this high-intensity war, if Russia wins and continues to North Korea, it does not mean that both sides can live in peace. The aftermath of the war will even affect the Asia-Pacific region, and you and I may experience the war in our lifetime.

Will Russia win?

On September 6, things didn't change much. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian army has captured the Maclove settlement in the Donetsk region.

It can be seen that the Russian army is still eroding the land of the four prefectures in Wudong as always.

It is undeniable that due to the temporary decline of the political arena and the resistance of the Ukrainian army was also very heroic, the forward speed of the front was very slow. It will take some time for the Russian army to occupy the Red Army City.

In contrast, Ukraine's statement deliberately avoids the front-line battlefield and focuses on itself. Robert Brodiv, commander of Ukrainian Kiev UAV Force, said: "Ukraine attacked Russia's Ryazan oil refinery and an oil depot in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region."

Governor Ryazan Markov did not deny this. After the attack, debris fell into a company, and air defense and electronic warfare systems shot down eight drones in the area, and the Ukrainian attack did not cause any casualties.

In general, on the battlefield, the Russian army was in an offensive position, but progressed slowly; Ukraine has been on the defensive position since Kursk withdrew and had no desire to attack. At least for half a year, Russia will be the party that takes the initiative in the battlefield, and it should not be difficult to maintain temporary advantages.

Any observer who has not yet lost his rationality can see that the situation is very unfavorable to Ukraine and that Russia will be the final winner.

First of all, after more than three years of bloody battle, Russia has become the country with the most severe sanctions in history. In the face of huge pressure, Russia's economy has not completely collapsed.

Sanctions have caused Russia to lack local suppliers that can provide restricted alternatives to imported equipment, materials and parts, causing Russia's inflation rate to reach 9.5% in 2024.

However, the gross domestic product (GDP), investment and imports of the Russian economy continued to grow.

To put it more clearly, industrial products and food prices such as mobile phones, machine tools, cars, toys, eggs, and vegetables are rising. Foreign exchange earned by the export of oil and grain, Russia's economy has performed a lasting miracle and demonstrated its ability to adapt to sanctions.

If you want to rely on economic sanctions and force Russia to make concessions on the battlefield, you can basically rely on fantasy.

So, since Russia will not have a turnaround in 1917, can Ukraine win with its own strength? Sorry, this possibility is basically 0.

In fact, Ukraine will "Amitabha" if it does not collapse first.

Ruslan Botnik is a well-known political scholar in Ukraine. He has long provided advice for major Ukrainian politicians and government departments. He has also served as chairman of the Public Commission of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. There was no joy in his mouth.

Botnik said in his answer to a reporter from Phoenix.com, "Most people in Ukrainian society want to end this protracted war. Social survey results of Gallup, the United States and some local Ukrainian institutions have shown that about 65%-80% of Ukrainians do not want to continue fighting, but hope to end the war or throw the war into the freezer."

Indeed, more than three years of war have displaced millions of people and affected the lives of tens of millions of people. It is a lie to be tired and not tired. But the problem is that only one-third of Ukrainians support concessions to achieve the truce.

The people do not want to fight, but they are unwilling to cede land and seek peace. This is the contradiction. It is like a messy knot tied to the hearts of the Ukrainians and restricts the beating of the entire country.

What's worse is that there are still about 20-25% of Ukrainians in Ukraine who advocate continuing to fight. This minority force is extremely active and occupies the high ground of public opinion in Ukraine. Its popularity mainly comes from the military and the most passionate and patriotic young and middle-aged people in society.

So what outsiders see is a divided society: most people want to end this damn war, but there is no force formed, they are the silent majority.

A small number of soldiers and political groups want to continue fighting, but they cannot come up with a once-for-all solution. It is even more fantasy to expect NATO to send troops, and things get stuck here, and they can't get up and down.

Perhaps Zelensky wanted to make some concessions deep in his heart and signed a ceasefire treaty with Putin, so as to "freeze" the war.

But once a treaty is signed, he will inevitably be counterattacked and set up a pillar of shame in history, so Zelensky dared not take the blame for the world.

Imagine how could Ukraine, which has no strong aid outside, partially split inside, lack of military strength and financial resources?

I am afraid that such a country will not be found in history. If we continue according to the current situation, the winner will only be one country - that is Russia.

Will peace come?

Since signing an agreement is impossible, Russia and Ukraine have to turn to the "fight and talk" model.

The Trump 2.0 era has begun, which has indeed provided a glimmer of hope for resolving wars through political means.

Trump, who took office with the priority of "the United States", began to deeply adjust the United States' position on the Ukrainian crisis and adopted a strategy of "easing Russia-US relations and alienating the U.S.-U.S.-U.S. relations."

This policy quickly broke the diplomatic deadlock between the United States and Russia. At the same time, Trump took the initiative to soften his position on the Ukraine issue and promised Ukraine not to join NATO.

What is worrying is that Trump cannot convince Ukraine under Zelensky's leadership. He dare not take risks and launch another "color revolution" to get rid of Zelensky.

The reason is also very simple. Zelensky has a 60% support rate in Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine is now a hot potato, and it is easy to get rid of Zelensky, but who should I choose to take the blame? No politician wants to leave a bad reputation in history.

However, some extreme situations cannot be ruled out. For example, Zelensky resigned on his own.

According to the Ukrainian Constitution, once the president leaves, his power will be automatically transferred to the president of the parliament, and the candidate for the president of the parliament comes from the majority in the parliament.

If the new president of parliament has the courage to be a "bad guy" and sign a compromise agreement, it will be considered to pull Ukraine away from the swamp of war.

Even if Ukraine and Russia sign an agreement, it does not mean that the days of peace will come. The "Russia-Ukraine War" has changed the world forever. The spillover of the war is not only limited to eastern Europe, but also to the Taiwan Strait and other parts of the world.

On June 30, 2025, six of the seven European countries bordering Russia and Belarus announced their withdrawal from the international convention on the ban on landmines in order to lay mines on the border and prevent Russia from invading NATO's eastern flank.

The six countries are Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Poland and Ukraine, which is still in war.

This international convention, called the Ottawa Convention, was signed in 1997.

Two years later, the treaty officially came into effect, with the purpose of prohibiting the use, production and transfer of anti-personnel mines worldwide.

Because such landmines are threatening to soldiers and civilians, they may pose a long-term threat after the conflict is over, it is very controversial.

According to public information, nearly 6,000 people worldwide died of landmines in 2023, and about 80% of the victims were civilians, including many children.

The long mine array, like a black iron curtain, fell on the land of Russia and border countries. Landmines are located in the 3,500-km long area from Lapland in Finland to the Lublin province in Poland.

Most of these areas are sparsely populated and densely forested, making it difficult to deploy defense or monitor.

Building landmines is undoubtedly a concrete manifestation of state relations.

Maybe Russia has no intention to restore the Tsarist Russian Empire, but it is an objective fact that the bordering countries have developed great distrust of Russia.

Who can guarantee that there will be no dispute in the future between Russia and the Baltic Sea, and who can guarantee that the new peace agreement is not a piece of paper or a replica of the Minsk Agreement?

In addition, when the "Russia-Ukraine War" broke out, the United States did not end in person at the first time, and had Mars collided with Russia.

On the contrary, during the Battle of Kiev, the United States actually persuaded Zelensky to run away quickly. Therefore, the outside world generally believes that the United States is a soft persimmon that is strong outside and is bullying the weak and afraid of the strong.

Since the United States is unwilling to take responsibility and maintain world security, will the war in other regions rekindle? This is another big issue, and the topic that is most concerned about is Taiwanese.

"The problem is, from beginning to end, I didn't see any kindness Trump is willing to release for the welfare of Taiwan. Apart from waving the tariff stick at every turn, he did not promise to protect Taiwan's interests. Ukraine is the best mirror for Taiwan!"

This remarked by Taiwanese-American dentist Lai Feibi on his personal Facebook on March 9. As an American, Ms. Lai seems not so loyal and is very concerned about the situation in Taiwan.

She believed that Trump lacked the "security guarantee" for Taiwan, so she used Ukraine as a mirror to reflect on whether the United States is really willing to help defend Taiwan.

What is deeply surprising is that this earnest and short post has caused heated discussions on the Taiwan Internet and mainstream news platforms. Taiwanese people with different positions had a fierce debate on Ms. Lai's views.

Jiang Jiaying, associate professor of the Department of Politics at the National University of Singapore, believes that: "The emergence of Taiwan's theory of doubt on the United States is not an accident. Since the United States abolished the common defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979, the feeling of being abandoned has been lingering in the hearts of Taiwanese people."

"Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" is a famous saying in Taiwan that is well-known to all women and children. If the United States gives up Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army will definitely not miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and the countdown to regaining Taiwan may be entered.

In addition to Taiwan, the island dispute between China and the Philippines is also coming to an end.

Recently, news has been reported that the Philippines' beach ship on Huangyan Island has used up supplies, and the main body of the ship is on the verge of disintegration.

Take this opportunity, China will no longer give the Philippines a good face. Not long ago, the People's Liberation Army sent a warship and accidentally bumped into its own coast guard ship, which was probably a reminder.

Conclusion:

Russia became the winner of the war and would inevitably impact the US's position as global hegemony, and the ripple effect caused by it is unimaginable.

If the original order in the forest is missing, it will inevitably fall into a brief chaos until a new "supreme arbitrator" appears. And a brief chaos means the arrival of war.

In the future, local and short-term wars will not only break out between small countries, but regional big countries will also come to the stage to gain resources and interests.

References

"We Ukrainians are tired of war, but they are unwilling to touch the reality of territorial exchange"" Phoenix.com

"Russia-US strategic compromise and the prospect of the Ukrainian crisis: "Warning and talking or the ultimate game"" Peace and development 2025 Issue 2