The intervention of Turkish intelligence agencies became a key turning point. According to the Jerusalem Post, citing Israeli military sources, the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MIT) issued an emergency warning to the Hamas negotiating team several hours before the air strike by real-time capture of the abnormal flight trajectory of Israeli military aircraft, combined with satellite reconnaissance and signal intelligence analysis. Hamas also confirmed to the Middle East Observation that it was precisely because of the external intelligence notification that key leaders were able to avoid the disaster.

International military experts analyzed that Turkey has continued to increase investment in radar network construction, electronic reconnaissance and data intelligence processing in recent years. Its air force is in line with NATO standards and is highly sensitive to regional aviation trends. MIT's operational experience in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and other places has enabled it to show its strong practical capabilities in the Middle East intelligence war.

Israel's toughness and passiveness: the limit of threats, the constraints of reality

After Israel's air strikes on Qatar targets, Netanyahu publicly sent tough signals to the outside world at a press conference held in Tel Aviv. He emphasized that "any country harboring Hamas will face ruthless blows from Israel" and criticized some countries for "helping evil." The Associated Press quoted the latest statement from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, saying that Israel "will continue to take preemptive military actions against all terrorist threats."

But the outside world noticed that Israel showed obvious restraint in the face of Türkiye's direct intelligence operations. Many mainstream Israeli media analyzed that although the Israeli side has the strongest military technology and air force in the region, it has always been reserved when interfering in Turkey's interests. The Israel Times pointed out in its editorial that Türkiye's countermeasures and regional influence have forced Israel to recalculate the "cost of military risk."

In fact, between 2024 and 2025, Türkiye's military interaction with Israel has become increasingly complex. According to data released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in August 2025, Türkiye's military expenditure increased by 8.2% year-on-year this year, focusing on intelligence system upgrades and air defense and anti-missile systems. Meanwhile, Israel's air strikes in surrounding areas hit a record high in nearly five years, but it is extremely cautious about actions in Türkiye and its actual stakeholder areas.

Who is the "active player" in the Middle East chess game?

Türkiye's role in the Middle East is no longer a "mediator" or "observer" in the traditional sense. Since 2025, Ankara has continued to promote the "active defense" strategy and maintained a high degree of intervention in the situation in Syria, Iraq and the Eastern Mediterranean. Data from the Turkish Ministry of Defense shows that MIT led more than 40 transnational intelligence operations in the past year, involving multiple directions such as cracking down on extremist organizations, investigating external military intervention and protecting their own overseas interests.

The Hamas incident once again proves that Turkey's intelligence capabilities have become an important variable in the regional "rules of the game". Reuters has combined the analysis of multiple intelligence personnel. The key to the reason why MIT can quickly capture Israeli military operations is its long-term monitoring and data analysis capabilities for aviation abnormal patterns. During this round of operation, Israeli military aircraft adopted various anti-reconnaissance measures such as communication silence and route evasion, but they were still captured by the Turkish radar network to "unconventional formations" and "unusual height changes".

Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drone has been "actually combated" in many places such as Libya, Ukraine, Armenia, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and its export volume hit a new record high in 2025. Data from the United Nations Weapons Registration Office shows that Türkiye has become the second most technological power in the region after Israel in terms of drone tactics and air defense systems. Because of this, Ankara has enough countermeasures to Israel's military provocations.

Israel's deterrence is blocked in front of the "Turkish Wall"

Although Israel continues to send tough signals, Turkey's practical actions and strong military strength behind it have become the "stabilizing needle" in the regional security pattern. The Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a rare statement in an interview with the Financial Times, acknowledging that in this incident, Qatar chose to "restrain and calm" but also warned that "the intervention of regional powers may change as the situation escalates."

Middle East scholar Ali Hassan wrote in Arab News that Turkey's strong intervention made Israel re-evaluate its external deterrence strategy, "In the face of Turkey, Israel's high-pressure policy encountered obvious resistance." It is worth noting that in the first half of 2025, the Gulf Arab Cooperation Committee (GCC) held many emergency meetings on the issue of Gaza, emphasizing the priority of "maintaining common regional security."

Israeli military sources revealed to Reuters that Israel is unlikely to challenge Türkiye in the short term. The reason is that Türkiye has NATO-standard multi-layer air defense networks, advanced electronic interference equipment and rich practical experience in many countries. The "safe and sound" of Hamas' senior management this time made Israel feel the "passiveness of intelligence war".

Who will be the next "entrant"?

Under the current situation, more Middle Eastern countries are closely monitoring the game between Israel and Turkey. In the latest vote of the UN Security Council, Jordan, Egypt and other countries chose to "express concern" about Israel's cross-border air strikes and called on "all parties to maintain restraint." In a statement on September 12, UN Secretary-General Guterres reiterated that no country shall resolve disputes by force, calling for "respecting territorial sovereignty and principles of international law."

At the same time, Turkish domestic public opinion generally supports the government's adoption of more active security policies in the Middle East. According to the latest poll by KONDA, a well-known Turkish research organization, in September 2025, more than 72% of respondents believe that Türkiye "has a need to play a more proactive role in regional security affairs." There are also voices in Israel calling on the government to "take care of relations with Turkey" to avoid being passive under the pressure of multi-line strategic.

Some analysts believe that with the continued turmoil in the Middle East, once Israel continues to adopt a high-pressure strategy against Hamas in the future, it will inevitably trigger a chain reaction from more neighboring countries. Whether it is Saudi Arabia, Iran, or the UAE, they are closely watching every step of the coronavirus situation.

Reference: Video | After Israel attacked Doha, Qatar, Netanyahu spoke out

2025-09-10 06:02·Shangguan News