Foreword

In the early morning of September 9, the night sky in Doha, the capital of Qatar, was cut by rows of missiles. The IDF air strike, code-named "Popular of Flame", dispatched 15 fighter jets in one breath and headed straight for the secret meeting of Hamas' senior executives.

As soon as the news came out, the world was shocked, but what was even more confusing was that after being bombed, Qatar did not go to make sense of China and Russia, but instead hugged the United States tightly and said that the military relations between the two sides were "stronger than ever." This operation made people ask: What kind of abacus is Qatar playing?

Being beaten on the surface, but in fact it is layout, Qatar does not have a "glass heart"

The Israeli air strike was called "anti-terrorism", but in fact it was doing a "decapitation operation", with the target directly targeting Hamas' overseas leadership, including Khalil Haya and Khalid Mashar, an important figure in the Hamas Politburo.

Israel's preparation time is not short, and intelligence, military, and Netanyahu themselves are running around and holding combat meetings almost every day. But the effect is, to be honest - not that good. The missile exploded, but the core members of the meeting were not injured. Instead, Haya's son and several security personnel were killed. A security officer in Qatar was also unfortunately killed.

Faced with this "hit to the door" air strike, Qatar strongly condemned it at the first time, calling it "state terrorism". But then again, Qatar condemns it, but he really doesn't have the confidence to do it. It is clear that this incident is essentially caused by Hamas. The target is Hamas, not Qatar. You can say it is "pretending to be stupid" or "pragmatic", but more accurately: this is an accurate trade-off on national interests.

The logic of the following things Qatar did is very clear: while forming a legal team, preparing to hold Israel accountable at the international judicial level; while quickly speaking with the US President, reiterating that the defense cooperation relationship between the two sides is "unprecedentedly strong", and quickly advancing a US$243.5 billion military purchase project. This is not simply a "victim cry", but a negotiation that took advantage of the situation to transform the "beating" into a "asking price".

The United States can make calls, but China and Russia can only issue statements

Many people are puzzled: Have you, Qatar, always had a good relationship with China and Russia? How can we not find these two "old friends" at critical moments? The answer is actually very realistic: China and Russia are in the Middle East, and they have the right to speak, but they do not have "jurisdiction".

Let's talk about Russia first. Qatar and Russia have long had military and technical cooperation. In 2018, we also discussed buying the S-400 air defense system. But now Russia itself is in a state of turmoil. The Ukrainian battlefield has not yet come out, and its ability and willingness to take action in the Middle East are very limited. Even if it really wants to help, it is too late.

Looking at China again, China and Qatar have a close relationship, and China is Qatar's largest buyer of liquefied natural gas, and the two sides have cooperated a lot on the "Belt and Road". However, China does not set up military bases or engages in military alliances in the Middle East, and advocates the diplomatic principle of not interfering in internal affairs. To put it bluntly, China is Qatar's most important business partner, but it is not a "security guard" who can send police at any time. The reality is: Qatar can negotiate business with China, but to negotiate security, it still has to contact the United States.

What about the United States? Not only can you make phone calls, but you can also transfer troops. The Udeid Air Base in Qatar is one of the largest military bases in the United States overseas, with more than 8,000 US troops, strategic bombers and underground hangars. This is not a "balcony friend", but a security binding at the "roommate level".

More importantly, Israel's "boss" is also the United States. If you want to suppress Israel's anger, it is useless to find others. Only with just one word from the US side can Israel "stop". Qatar's choice of side stations is not driven by emotions, but the result of careful calculation of the list of interests.

The Middle East is not a place of loyalty, but a battlefield for calculation

Some people say that Qatar is "cartiled", but in the Middle East, this is not a derogatory term. In this geopolitical powder keg, survival is the first and face is second. Qatar's diplomacy has always focused on "flexible and pragmatic", is an ally with the United States, and can speak with Iran, rely on China economically, and maintains interaction with Russia politically. This multi-party betting strategy, to be nice, is "strategic autonomy", and to be blunt, "no one can offend."

But military security is different. Qatar is very clear about its positioning: without the US military stationed on the land, no matter how many diplomatic moves are, they will be empty talk. When Israel hits the door, the first thing Qatar does not do is to lose his temper, but to speed up military binding with the United States. This logic of "if I hit me, I will buy more arms" seems twisted, but in fact it is Qatar's profound grasp of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

And this is also a good game for the United States. Israel's air strike against Qatar was revealed to be "informed" in advance, but chose to pretend to be deaf and dumb. Later, he came forward to appease Qatar, signing the arms sales agreement while consolidating his presence in the Middle East. Not only did it make its allies more dependent on itself, it also suppressed China and Russia's influence in the region. The one who fought Hamas was the one who benefited from the United States.

Who understands Qatar's abacus?

After all, Qatar did not choose Russia, but after weighing the trade-offs, it was known that they could not help. The rules of the game in the Middle East have never been "who is right and who is wrong", but "who can keep you safe."

Qatar is not not not seeing the world clearly, but is too clear about how the world works. It knows that what can really make Israel stop is not the United Nations, nor the circle of friends, but the United States' phone number.

This air strike seemed to be a military strike, but in fact it was a collective appearance of a geopolitical game. Israel wants to undermine the negotiations, pull the United States into the water, and scare its neighbors; the United States takes the opportunity to consolidate its allies, promote arms sales, and restrain China and Russia; Qatar straightens out defense cooperation, improves negotiation chips, and stabilizes its identity as a mediator in the artillery fire. Each side is playing chess, but Doha has become the brightest piece on the chessboard.

Qatar's "beating" is not a failure, but an active strategic turn. It does not choose to vent its emotions, but chooses to connect with reality. In this Middle East full of gunpowder, who can live long does not depend on anger, but on soberness.

Qatar did not look for China and Russia this time, not betrayed, but knew how to play each card. The security roadmap of Middle Eastern countries in the future may become more and more like Qatar: economic diversification and bet on the United States on security. This is not the victory of idealism, but the necessity of realism.

Reference:

The three abacuses of Israel have all failed. Qatar not only needs to endure, but also needs to strengthen cooperation with the United States

2025-09-12 Sohu.com

Behead Hamas, and the Israeli army attacked Qatar! What is Trump's plan?

2025-09-10 China.com